Inaugural Post for Politics Over Drinks

Introduction
Item 1: Democratic Presidential Nomination Endgame
Item 2: Thoughts on the politics of NY Governor Paterson's Disclosure of Infidelity

I welcome readers to this new blog, which was the brainchild of my wife. She has been tirelessly lobbying me to start this blog because she has a high opinion of both my writing skills and of my capacity to astutely interpret events in politics and in government. She also believes that conversations I have with her and some of my good friends on these topics are very informative, and would be of interest to a larger audience.

Setting aside the question of whether her views on such matters are accurate, I have decided finally give in to her lobbying efforts. I hope to make use of this forum to periodically offer my thoughts about various matters, as well as to make the case for why I believe certain political developments either will happen, or have happened. I expect that this blog will include additional authors as we move forward, likely including one or more of the friends I referenced above, as well as my wife, who has an intuitive behavioral understanding of people that often translates into remarkably accurate insights into political behavior.

Now, onto my first topics!

Democratic Nomination Battle

There has been much discussion in the media and elsewhere about how the Democratic Party is faced with a potential disaster of a nomination fight that could fracture its potential winning coalition in the general election. Senator Barack Obama has amassed a modest, solid lead in convention delegates that, due to the proportional-allocation rules of the DNC, is unlikely to be eclipsed by Senator Hillary Clinton at the conclusion of the nominating season--which, at present, would be the elections in South Dakota and Montana on June 3. Michigan officials have proposed a new primary for that date as well, but no final determinations have been made as to its feasibility or likelihood of occurrence; Florida officials have abandoned plans to schedule a new primary election. As the issue has been beaten to death elsewhere, I need not elaborate on why the two states are in their current predicament.

Senator Clinton, while having been outpaced in the nominating process by Senator Obama, has nonetheless secured significant victories and demonstrated strength among certain demographic groups that have convinced her to continue pursuing the nomination. These circumstantial grounds for continuing the contest combine with her obvious belief that she is the best candidate. Her campaign's personal attacks on Senator Obama's candidacy and competence have raised serious concern among some in the party establishment, but I'll get back to that in a bit. Senator Obama obviously believes he is the best candidate, and, as discussed above, he is nearly guaranteed to end up as the leader in delegates at the end of the primary season.

The dilemma, of course, is that neither Obama nor Clinton has anywhere close to a realistic chance of securing a nomination-clinching 2,024 delegates total on the strength of delegates won in state primaries and caucuses. Thus it falls to the "superdelegates," or those to whom the DNC grants an automatic convention vote as a consequence of an individual's particular position with the DNC or of an individual's status as the occupant of certain elected offices (Members of Congress, State Governors). Of these 794 superdelegates (of 796 original superdelegates), the CNN count has 237 declared for Clinton, and 207 declared for Obama.

Now that I've finally gotten through the somewhat tedious background, I offer my assessment of how these superdelegates will seek to ensure that the primary fight does not continue beyond the late spring.

The next primary is in Pennsylvania on April 22, and Senator Clinton is favored to win there by many observers. I believe that she does have the upper hand, but that Senator Obama will do better there than he did in Ohio. Two weeks later, on May 3, North Carolina and Indiana will hold primaries. If Senator Obama wins both states (and I expect that he will win in NC and win a much closer race in IN), it will serve as an affirmation of his performance thus far, and lead significant numbers of superdelegates to declare their support for him.

Perhaps they will wait until the May 13 WV primary (probable Clinton win) and the Mary 20 primaries (OR--Obama; KY--Clinton) have passed, but there will be a movement to push Obama's delegate total above the clinching threshold, since, a la Mike Huckabee of the recent Republican nomination race, that may be the only point at which Clinton would drop out.

NY Governor David Paterson

Today it was reported that new NY Governor David Paterson has publicly disclosed marital infidelities that occurred nearly ten years ago, of which his wife was already aware for many years. This disclosure comes less than a day after he was sworn in to replace Eliot Spitzer, who resigned in the wake of disclosures that he had been using the services of a high-end prostitution ring for some time.

I believe this disclosure, at this time, was remarkably astute from a political perspective. First, he demonstrates transparency and honesty with the people of New York up front, on an issue that would absolutely have come out sometime down the line. Second, the lesser informed and/or attentive among the populace would likely read only the headline of "NY governor admits affairs," and presume it had something to do with Eliot Spitzer, since it fits the narrative of his latest problems. Third, and most important, it allows the more learned observers of the situation to view Paterson's transgressions as far tamer than Spitzer's, and more easily dismissed as a private matter by a public that has been fed up with sexual witch-hunts since Bill Clinton's impeachment debacle.

Thanks for reading, and please feel free to leave any comments and/or questions you might have. I will not have a particular schedule for posts as I move forward, but I hope offer my thoughts as often as my work and leisure schedules permit.

Cheers!