The Campaign Marches On

A short note to start the work week, concerning how I think things might play out in the Democratic nomination fight in the coming month or so.

First, my latest read on how things have developed in the last week or so suggests to me that, aside from Hillary Clinton's determined refusal to concede anything, seemingly in the near or distant future, I expect that since only 10 contests remain on the primary calendar, there will be no effort by influential Democratic Party figures to negotiate a resolution prior to the final contests on June 3 (SD and MT).

Setting aside the particularly gratuitous negative attacks of recent weeks, this election season has been a largely positive affair that has increased Democratic turnout and enthusiasm exponentially. Most states' voters don't really get to weigh in on presidential nominating contests, so now that we're at the point where most voters have had a real voice, it would be very dispiriting and disappointing from a democratic (small "d") standpoint to somehow not permit the remaining states a chance to express their preferences in a consequential election.

As such, barring an unexpected withdrawal from Hillary Clinton at some point before June 3, we'll have a competitive contest until that date. I believe that the last remaining, albeit remote, chance that she'll withdraw is if she somehow loses Pennsylvania on April 22. I believe that she will win there, but it will be a far narrower victory than current polls suggest. Nonetheless, I believe the chances of Obama winning PA are far greater than the infinitesimal chances Clinton has of actually ending up with the party's nomination.

Second, there have already been increasing signs that Obama may be maneuvering to finish the nominating season in a manner similar to that of John McCain--in practice if not in style or deliberate design. Influential endorsements by superdelegates, featuring but not limited to those last week's by NM Gov. Bill Richardson and U.S. Senator Bob Casey (PA), and today's by U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar (MN), suggest a movement towards a specific goal.

This may take a while, so bear with me. Obama would very much like to catch up to Hillary in the category of overall superdelegate support--he now trails by just over 30. However, the McCain analogy applies in the following context: It has been widely noted that superdelegates will be required for either candidate to clear the 2,024 overall delegate hurdle and claim the presumptive nomination. Political observers may recall that, in the GOP race, Gov. Mike Huckabee stayed in the race because, to paraphrase, the party does not have a nominee "until someone gets to 1,191" (the magic number for the GOP nomination).

Obama is likely working on obtaining the public commitments of enough superdelegates over the next month or so, such that he might be able to clear the 2,024 hurdle in projected delegates on one of the closing primaries' election nights--perhaps May 20 when OR and KY vote, or perhaps on June 3 when SD and MT vote. In any event, if he were to be declared a "presumptive nominee" during election night coverage, that public perception would be like a bell that one can't un-ring. Just ask Al Gore about when the networks projected FL for Bush in 2000 and declared him the next president, before taking it back a few hours later.

Will it play out this way for the Obama-Clinton race? Difficult to say for sure, but I believe that Obama is certainly trying to make it happen, and it would be quite an exclamation point on his nomination fight if he can pull it off.