I Seek Unanimous Consent to Revise and Extend My Remarks

The "revise and extend" phrasing in my subject borrows from a standard parliamentary request in the U.S. Senate whenever a senator speaks on a topic. If approved, and it always is (senatorial courtesy and all), the request allows the Senator to submit in writing any technical corrections to what he or she says on the floor, as well as to add additional text (such as if he or she only delivers part of his or her statement on the floor, and wants to put the whole thing in the Congressional Record).

Now, to the substance of my statement, for which I techinically don't need unanimous consent since it's my blog, but which I have politely asked for nonetheless. In the tradition of the Senate, most all statements are phrased with good manners, even if the substance is hardly polite. Think something with the essence of "I would ask my very good friend, the Senator from Oklahoma, if he would be so kind as to shove his amendment up his ass," only without the profanity, since that would be uncouth.

But I digress. In my first post concerning political predictions for the Democratic presidential race, I made brief reference to the likely outcome of Pennsylvania's primary, in the context of a larger discussion of all remaining states in play. A second assessment of the prevailing opinions among certain demographic groups in the state has led me to modestly revise my predictions for Pennsylvania, and to expand my discussion of the particular dynamics at play in this state.

There are certain resentments that exist within broad swaths of the lower to middle income blue collar population about a number of things, which are very likely to be inflamed by the demagoguery being peddled over the offensive statements by Senator Obama's former minister, Reverend Jeremiah Wright, but which are unlikely to be as powerfully impacted by Senator Obama's recent discourse on race in America, as Obama's eloquent discussion of a very nuanced issue does not lend itself to the same kind of "soundbiting" coverage that our rabid 24-hour media culture has perpetuated for too long.

That being said, I am now not as convinced that Pennsylvania will look very different from Ohio for the above reasons. However, there are two other elements of the equation that may come into play, which could have some positive impact on the Pennsylvania race from Obama's perspective.

The first issue centers on a documented body of evidence that shows Obama's performance in states with purportedly "hostile" demographics (lower income, blue collar, traditional white Democrats) improving when he has the opportunity to spend an extended amount of time in a state speaking with as many voters as possible. His vision, intellect, and reasoned approach to politics and governing has moved many people--of all races--throughout the nation thus far. Is there a ceiling to his performance in Pennsylvania, particularly in light of the issues raised in a very unfavorable media-cycle in the past week? Perhaps. But there are still nearly 5 weeks left until April 22. Speaking of performance among Demographic groups, I find it a bit frustrating that the mainstream media consistently harps on perceived deficiencies when it comes to Obama, but pays scant attention to the fact that Hillary Clinton's performance among other important demographic groups (as far as Democrats are concerned) has been abysmal--chiefly, African American voters and highly educated, progressive voters.

In fairness, the media has covered the race-baiting tactics of the Clinton campaign in a critical way, rightly calling out disgraceful and divisive actions. But the issue is then mostly left alone as somehow unconnected to her purported strength as a general election candidate. Her fundamental weakness among African Americans is not something that will automatically evaporate as a major issue if she were to become the nominee. And what does it say about the Clinton campaign that a group of educated, financially well-off people who are basically in agreement with her ideologically on policy issues nonetheless are decisively backing Obama?

The second issue concerns a recently renewed effort by Obama to illustrate to all voters, particularly those at the lower end of the income scale, how our terrible economic situation is directly tied to the disasterous management of the Iraq War and the staggering federal spending on it and on tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. The war is an incredibly unpopular issue among Democrats (and most Americans), and Obama is the better candidate on this issue, since Hillary Clinton enabled Bush's march to war voting to authorize military force, and has yet to take responsibility for it, offering a panoply of excuses and distortions. If Obama can make "economic distress" and "Iraq War" become consciously linked in the minds of enough voters, he can persuade them to follow his lead and his plans for handling both.

I know Obama will make some inroads on the strength of his campaigning skills, but it is not clear whether he will make enough progress to at least make Pennsylvania a narrow Clinton win. Whether he can make a breakthrough on the question of more powerfully linking the economy with the disaster in Iraq is an open question at this point. Thus, it remains to be seen whether Obama can outperform what are now very low expectations for him in the state. A silver lining for Senator Obama--as Hillary has demonstrated more than once during this campaign, if you set yourself up with low expectations that become accepted wisdom, you can "win" even by losing if you can then exceed those expectations.

In closing, I wish to reinforce the essential point of my inaugural post. Senator Obama will end the primary season with a clear lead in both pledged delegates and in overall delegates (incorporating superdelegates who have already declared their support for one of the candidates). The superdelegates will not move en masse to Clinton and deny Obama the nomination, or they will absolutely fracture the Democratic Party and guarantee the election of John McCain. This is the nightmare scenario, and Democratic officials with superdelegate votes are simply not kamikaze pilots.

Inaugural Post for Politics Over Drinks

Introduction
Item 1: Democratic Presidential Nomination Endgame
Item 2: Thoughts on the politics of NY Governor Paterson's Disclosure of Infidelity

I welcome readers to this new blog, which was the brainchild of my wife. She has been tirelessly lobbying me to start this blog because she has a high opinion of both my writing skills and of my capacity to astutely interpret events in politics and in government. She also believes that conversations I have with her and some of my good friends on these topics are very informative, and would be of interest to a larger audience.

Setting aside the question of whether her views on such matters are accurate, I have decided finally give in to her lobbying efforts. I hope to make use of this forum to periodically offer my thoughts about various matters, as well as to make the case for why I believe certain political developments either will happen, or have happened. I expect that this blog will include additional authors as we move forward, likely including one or more of the friends I referenced above, as well as my wife, who has an intuitive behavioral understanding of people that often translates into remarkably accurate insights into political behavior.

Now, onto my first topics!

Democratic Nomination Battle

There has been much discussion in the media and elsewhere about how the Democratic Party is faced with a potential disaster of a nomination fight that could fracture its potential winning coalition in the general election. Senator Barack Obama has amassed a modest, solid lead in convention delegates that, due to the proportional-allocation rules of the DNC, is unlikely to be eclipsed by Senator Hillary Clinton at the conclusion of the nominating season--which, at present, would be the elections in South Dakota and Montana on June 3. Michigan officials have proposed a new primary for that date as well, but no final determinations have been made as to its feasibility or likelihood of occurrence; Florida officials have abandoned plans to schedule a new primary election. As the issue has been beaten to death elsewhere, I need not elaborate on why the two states are in their current predicament.

Senator Clinton, while having been outpaced in the nominating process by Senator Obama, has nonetheless secured significant victories and demonstrated strength among certain demographic groups that have convinced her to continue pursuing the nomination. These circumstantial grounds for continuing the contest combine with her obvious belief that she is the best candidate. Her campaign's personal attacks on Senator Obama's candidacy and competence have raised serious concern among some in the party establishment, but I'll get back to that in a bit. Senator Obama obviously believes he is the best candidate, and, as discussed above, he is nearly guaranteed to end up as the leader in delegates at the end of the primary season.

The dilemma, of course, is that neither Obama nor Clinton has anywhere close to a realistic chance of securing a nomination-clinching 2,024 delegates total on the strength of delegates won in state primaries and caucuses. Thus it falls to the "superdelegates," or those to whom the DNC grants an automatic convention vote as a consequence of an individual's particular position with the DNC or of an individual's status as the occupant of certain elected offices (Members of Congress, State Governors). Of these 794 superdelegates (of 796 original superdelegates), the CNN count has 237 declared for Clinton, and 207 declared for Obama.

Now that I've finally gotten through the somewhat tedious background, I offer my assessment of how these superdelegates will seek to ensure that the primary fight does not continue beyond the late spring.

The next primary is in Pennsylvania on April 22, and Senator Clinton is favored to win there by many observers. I believe that she does have the upper hand, but that Senator Obama will do better there than he did in Ohio. Two weeks later, on May 3, North Carolina and Indiana will hold primaries. If Senator Obama wins both states (and I expect that he will win in NC and win a much closer race in IN), it will serve as an affirmation of his performance thus far, and lead significant numbers of superdelegates to declare their support for him.

Perhaps they will wait until the May 13 WV primary (probable Clinton win) and the Mary 20 primaries (OR--Obama; KY--Clinton) have passed, but there will be a movement to push Obama's delegate total above the clinching threshold, since, a la Mike Huckabee of the recent Republican nomination race, that may be the only point at which Clinton would drop out.

NY Governor David Paterson

Today it was reported that new NY Governor David Paterson has publicly disclosed marital infidelities that occurred nearly ten years ago, of which his wife was already aware for many years. This disclosure comes less than a day after he was sworn in to replace Eliot Spitzer, who resigned in the wake of disclosures that he had been using the services of a high-end prostitution ring for some time.

I believe this disclosure, at this time, was remarkably astute from a political perspective. First, he demonstrates transparency and honesty with the people of New York up front, on an issue that would absolutely have come out sometime down the line. Second, the lesser informed and/or attentive among the populace would likely read only the headline of "NY governor admits affairs," and presume it had something to do with Eliot Spitzer, since it fits the narrative of his latest problems. Third, and most important, it allows the more learned observers of the situation to view Paterson's transgressions as far tamer than Spitzer's, and more easily dismissed as a private matter by a public that has been fed up with sexual witch-hunts since Bill Clinton's impeachment debacle.

Thanks for reading, and please feel free to leave any comments and/or questions you might have. I will not have a particular schedule for posts as I move forward, but I hope offer my thoughts as often as my work and leisure schedules permit.

Cheers!