My Perspective on Likely Vice Presidential Selections


Sorry for my extended absence from opining on all matters political. The whole Hatch Act thing keeps me from the blog at work, and I've been uncommonly busy on the weekends and let it slip. Anyway, while I'm late to the game, I have some thoughts on Washington's favorite quadrennial parlor game--the Veepstakes!

Now, to those people who I think would both be the best selections by Obama:



1. Former U.S. Senator Bob Graham (FL). This is my dark horse candidate (who recently was announced as a headliner for a West Palm Beach fundraiser for Obama). There are two major reasons why he's a great choice. First, he was a very popular Senator AND Governor of Florida over a 20 year political career, which could help make the state more competitive for Obama. Second, he's a recognized expert in national security policy, having chaired the Senate Intelligence Committee and having voted against authorizing the Iraq War in 2002. Graham actually read the National Intelligence Estimate (which almost 90% of the Senators at the time did not), and determined that it would be damaging to the U.S.'s interests to invade Iraq. These facts buttress Barack Obama's arguments on the war, and provide him a credible validator of his judgement in Bob Graham.


Keep an eye out on this candidate. I would be beyond excited if Obama chose Graham.


2. Former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn (GA). Nunn has had his name thrown around a bit by other media outlets, and for good reason. His national security credentials from his Senate service are at least as strong as Bob Graham's, and his signature foreign policy acheivement was to help secure nuclear weapons held by the former Soviet Union when it dissolved. Working with Republican Senator Dick Lugar (IN), he established a security protocol and helped provide funding to make sure these weapons didn't fall into the hands of "bad actors" in the former Soviet republics and elsewhere. Same "elder statesman" role as Graham could play, and electorally speaking, Nunn absolutely strengthens Obama's push to win an upset in Georgia, given Nunn's popularity as a moderate Democrat in the state.

One caveat advanced by some quarters about Nunn is the fact that he led the opposition to Bill Clinton's effort to change military policy with respect to the service of gays and lesbians. Not Nunn's finest hour, to say the least. Self-identified gay and lesbian voters are generally strong supporters of the Democratic Party. However, I do not believe that potential displeasure from this segment of voters will be dispositive as to whether Nunn is selected. Nunn has recently expressed that he is now not categorically opposed to gays and lesbians openly serving in the military. In addition, Obama would be setting policy, and he is in favor of homosexuality being eliminated as a bar to military service.


3. Governor Ted Strickland (OH). To begin, I am well aware that Strickland has publicly expressed his opposition to serving as Vice President, in rather clear terms. I'll get back to that in a bit. Electorally, I believe that having Strickland on the ticket locks up Ohio for Obama in November. That is an incredibly important swing state, with 20 electoral votes, that comes off the table. Strickland is incredibly popular in Ohio, and would be another great "validator" for Obama, helping him shore up support from undecided voters.

Regarding the "I do not want to be Vice President" thing, stranger things have happened in the Veepstakes' history, and if things were to develop such that Barack Obama came to the conclusion that Strickland would be the best pick, I believe that Strickland would not say no if he were personally asked to serve his country in this way.

As for the Republicans, John McCain's selection doesn't concern me greatly, since I think there are really only two likely picks for him at this point, former MA Governor Mitt Romney, and current MN Governor Tim Pawlenty, both of whom have been circulating as likely selections in much of the rest of the media for a number of months.

A Republican friend of mine, a former supporter of Romney during his governorship, went as far as to say that, were McCain to select Romney, "he should just announce that he's conceding the election." I completely agree--I spent the last year hoping against hope that Romney would win the GOP nomination, because he would absolutely have been the easiest candidate to beat--largely due a record completely devoid of any political or policy values that couldn't be changed if the winds were blowing the right way.

Pawlenty would probably be a decent pick for McCain, but I don't believe that the pick would help McCain actually win in Minnesota, despite the fact that Pawlenty's supposed ability in this regard is the only reason he's actually being considered. Pawlenty won two terms as governor by only a plurality vote--he did not receive a majority in either election. This is not a recipe for strong performance in a state that, while closely contested the last couple of cycles, has been a strong Democratic performer in presidential elections for over a generation.

As a final thought, I yield to my wife, who offers her pick for McCain's VP--former Governor Mike Huckabee (AR). She believes that his strong support among religious conservatives is an important element to consider, given that McCain is not really a trusted person among this slice of the electorate. Add to that the fact that McCain and Huckabee got along very well in an otherwise acrimonious primary season, and it certainly bears watching as to whether Huckabee will get the nod.

The Campaign Marches On

A short note to start the work week, concerning how I think things might play out in the Democratic nomination fight in the coming month or so.

First, my latest read on how things have developed in the last week or so suggests to me that, aside from Hillary Clinton's determined refusal to concede anything, seemingly in the near or distant future, I expect that since only 10 contests remain on the primary calendar, there will be no effort by influential Democratic Party figures to negotiate a resolution prior to the final contests on June 3 (SD and MT).

Setting aside the particularly gratuitous negative attacks of recent weeks, this election season has been a largely positive affair that has increased Democratic turnout and enthusiasm exponentially. Most states' voters don't really get to weigh in on presidential nominating contests, so now that we're at the point where most voters have had a real voice, it would be very dispiriting and disappointing from a democratic (small "d") standpoint to somehow not permit the remaining states a chance to express their preferences in a consequential election.

As such, barring an unexpected withdrawal from Hillary Clinton at some point before June 3, we'll have a competitive contest until that date. I believe that the last remaining, albeit remote, chance that she'll withdraw is if she somehow loses Pennsylvania on April 22. I believe that she will win there, but it will be a far narrower victory than current polls suggest. Nonetheless, I believe the chances of Obama winning PA are far greater than the infinitesimal chances Clinton has of actually ending up with the party's nomination.

Second, there have already been increasing signs that Obama may be maneuvering to finish the nominating season in a manner similar to that of John McCain--in practice if not in style or deliberate design. Influential endorsements by superdelegates, featuring but not limited to those last week's by NM Gov. Bill Richardson and U.S. Senator Bob Casey (PA), and today's by U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar (MN), suggest a movement towards a specific goal.

This may take a while, so bear with me. Obama would very much like to catch up to Hillary in the category of overall superdelegate support--he now trails by just over 30. However, the McCain analogy applies in the following context: It has been widely noted that superdelegates will be required for either candidate to clear the 2,024 overall delegate hurdle and claim the presumptive nomination. Political observers may recall that, in the GOP race, Gov. Mike Huckabee stayed in the race because, to paraphrase, the party does not have a nominee "until someone gets to 1,191" (the magic number for the GOP nomination).

Obama is likely working on obtaining the public commitments of enough superdelegates over the next month or so, such that he might be able to clear the 2,024 hurdle in projected delegates on one of the closing primaries' election nights--perhaps May 20 when OR and KY vote, or perhaps on June 3 when SD and MT vote. In any event, if he were to be declared a "presumptive nominee" during election night coverage, that public perception would be like a bell that one can't un-ring. Just ask Al Gore about when the networks projected FL for Bush in 2000 and declared him the next president, before taking it back a few hours later.

Will it play out this way for the Obama-Clinton race? Difficult to say for sure, but I believe that Obama is certainly trying to make it happen, and it would be quite an exclamation point on his nomination fight if he can pull it off.