My Perspective on Likely Vice Presidential Selections


Sorry for my extended absence from opining on all matters political. The whole Hatch Act thing keeps me from the blog at work, and I've been uncommonly busy on the weekends and let it slip. Anyway, while I'm late to the game, I have some thoughts on Washington's favorite quadrennial parlor game--the Veepstakes!

Now, to those people who I think would both be the best selections by Obama:



1. Former U.S. Senator Bob Graham (FL). This is my dark horse candidate (who recently was announced as a headliner for a West Palm Beach fundraiser for Obama). There are two major reasons why he's a great choice. First, he was a very popular Senator AND Governor of Florida over a 20 year political career, which could help make the state more competitive for Obama. Second, he's a recognized expert in national security policy, having chaired the Senate Intelligence Committee and having voted against authorizing the Iraq War in 2002. Graham actually read the National Intelligence Estimate (which almost 90% of the Senators at the time did not), and determined that it would be damaging to the U.S.'s interests to invade Iraq. These facts buttress Barack Obama's arguments on the war, and provide him a credible validator of his judgement in Bob Graham.


Keep an eye out on this candidate. I would be beyond excited if Obama chose Graham.


2. Former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn (GA). Nunn has had his name thrown around a bit by other media outlets, and for good reason. His national security credentials from his Senate service are at least as strong as Bob Graham's, and his signature foreign policy acheivement was to help secure nuclear weapons held by the former Soviet Union when it dissolved. Working with Republican Senator Dick Lugar (IN), he established a security protocol and helped provide funding to make sure these weapons didn't fall into the hands of "bad actors" in the former Soviet republics and elsewhere. Same "elder statesman" role as Graham could play, and electorally speaking, Nunn absolutely strengthens Obama's push to win an upset in Georgia, given Nunn's popularity as a moderate Democrat in the state.

One caveat advanced by some quarters about Nunn is the fact that he led the opposition to Bill Clinton's effort to change military policy with respect to the service of gays and lesbians. Not Nunn's finest hour, to say the least. Self-identified gay and lesbian voters are generally strong supporters of the Democratic Party. However, I do not believe that potential displeasure from this segment of voters will be dispositive as to whether Nunn is selected. Nunn has recently expressed that he is now not categorically opposed to gays and lesbians openly serving in the military. In addition, Obama would be setting policy, and he is in favor of homosexuality being eliminated as a bar to military service.


3. Governor Ted Strickland (OH). To begin, I am well aware that Strickland has publicly expressed his opposition to serving as Vice President, in rather clear terms. I'll get back to that in a bit. Electorally, I believe that having Strickland on the ticket locks up Ohio for Obama in November. That is an incredibly important swing state, with 20 electoral votes, that comes off the table. Strickland is incredibly popular in Ohio, and would be another great "validator" for Obama, helping him shore up support from undecided voters.

Regarding the "I do not want to be Vice President" thing, stranger things have happened in the Veepstakes' history, and if things were to develop such that Barack Obama came to the conclusion that Strickland would be the best pick, I believe that Strickland would not say no if he were personally asked to serve his country in this way.

As for the Republicans, John McCain's selection doesn't concern me greatly, since I think there are really only two likely picks for him at this point, former MA Governor Mitt Romney, and current MN Governor Tim Pawlenty, both of whom have been circulating as likely selections in much of the rest of the media for a number of months.

A Republican friend of mine, a former supporter of Romney during his governorship, went as far as to say that, were McCain to select Romney, "he should just announce that he's conceding the election." I completely agree--I spent the last year hoping against hope that Romney would win the GOP nomination, because he would absolutely have been the easiest candidate to beat--largely due a record completely devoid of any political or policy values that couldn't be changed if the winds were blowing the right way.

Pawlenty would probably be a decent pick for McCain, but I don't believe that the pick would help McCain actually win in Minnesota, despite the fact that Pawlenty's supposed ability in this regard is the only reason he's actually being considered. Pawlenty won two terms as governor by only a plurality vote--he did not receive a majority in either election. This is not a recipe for strong performance in a state that, while closely contested the last couple of cycles, has been a strong Democratic performer in presidential elections for over a generation.

As a final thought, I yield to my wife, who offers her pick for McCain's VP--former Governor Mike Huckabee (AR). She believes that his strong support among religious conservatives is an important element to consider, given that McCain is not really a trusted person among this slice of the electorate. Add to that the fact that McCain and Huckabee got along very well in an otherwise acrimonious primary season, and it certainly bears watching as to whether Huckabee will get the nod.